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俄羅斯旱災與山火影響小麥出口量

Posted on: August 7, 2010


中國大手掃玉米 糧食安全響警號 繁榮帶動飼料需求洪災大旱減供應

(明報)2010年8月7日 星期六 05:10

【明報專訊】俄羅斯    因旱災與山火影響而禁止小麥出口,引發全球可能繼2008年後再爆發糧食危機。除了全球小麥供求緊張外,中國今年也要10年首次大規模進口美國    玉米,亦為國內糧食安全敲響警號。分析家稱,中國中產階級崛起帶動了飼料和乙醇燃料的需求,加上東北洪災和西南大旱,令玉米供應緊張,價格暴漲,內地5年內玉米進口,可能激增10倍。

今年以來中國玉米進口數量創新高,且有繼續增長的勢頭。根據《華爾街日報    》數據,中國今年已自全球最大的玉米生產國美國,進口約120萬公噸的玉米,儘管幾年前中國從所有國家進口的玉米還不足10萬噸。上海    匯易咨詢有限公司執行總裁李強引述美國榖物委員會形容,中國玉米供不應求,已進入成為玉米進口國的新時代,在2015年前玉米進口量可能急增至目前的10倍。

中國大舉進口玉米一大原因,是國內玉米市場出現需求快速增長而供給減少的情况,導致玉米價格上升,為壓低價格,中國增加了玉米進口配額。中國經濟高速增長,中產的崛起為肉、奶、蛋等食品創造了需求,帶來更大的玉米等動物飼料需求。中國天災頻繁,亦打亂了玉米收成進度,造成供應減少,估計難以達至去年的1.63億噸產量。

乙醇燃料發展 人車爭「吃」玉米

中國玉米需求急增,另一主因是中國近年急速發展乙醇燃料,這種環保燃料的原材料正是玉米。目前東北3省黑龍江、吉林和遼寧都採用了乙醇汽油,令這片全國玉米生產重地變成乙醇工業大本營。有當地糧食加工集團負責人稱,乙醇工廠每年消耗400萬噸玉米,相當於國內玉米加工業玉米需求4100萬噸的接近一成。因有國家補貼,有工廠甚至利用優質玉米製造乙醇,造成了「汽車與人爭吃玉米」的亂局,影響當地玉米供應。

中國玉米期貨價格1年升約20%

目前中國玉米期貨價格已升至每噸2000元人民幣(295美元    )之上,近1年升幅約為20%。相比下,美國芝加哥商品期貨交易所玉米期貨價格,昨雖升至每蒲式耳4.2美元水平,但只是平了今年高位。有分析認為,中國玉米「跑贏」美國玉米,除了供應短缺因素,美國對玉米巨額補貼亦是一個關鍵。根據經濟學家朗咸平的研究,1998年起,華府對玉米行業的補貼金額高達290億美元,相當於2000億元人民幣,加上美國農業科技先進,生產玉米成本偏低,而中國飼料生產為尋求高利潤而轉向廉價進口玉米,亦令美國玉米需求大升。

中國增加美國玉米進口,引發了對國內糧食安全的新一輪憂慮。近年,以美國為主的廉價進口大豆,攻陷中國大豆市場,令中國大豆由自給自足變為幾乎被外資壟斷,本土大豆加工企業陷入倒閉和停產困局。但亦有業內人士認為,目前中國進口美國玉米量不太大,與大舉進口美國大豆的情况不同。

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